“I couldn’t make it through a workout
without music,” remarked Tim Cook, Apple CEO. “Music inspires, it
motivates. It’s also the thing at night that helps quiet me. I think
it’s better than any medicine.”
We
don't detect much melody in musical fare these days. Nor are
lyrics memorable, if they can be heard over the bang of the drums and
the screech of over-modulated guitar amplifiers.
But we are very patient. As teenagers of the early 1940s we did
our share to annoy the older
generations with our adoration of big band swing and stupid songs like
"Mairzy Doats and Dozy Doats," or "Hut-sut Ralsin on the
Rillarah." The grownups of that day had forgotten the crazy songs
of their own youth like "Who
takes care of the caretaker's daughter when the caretaker is busy
taking care?"
Browse the folios of popular music
of the '20s, 30s, and '40s and notice the clever lyric rhymes, the
memorable tunes - the kind people tended to whistle on the street or to
themselves when performing chores. Try to find the melody in the
hard rock stuff that circulates today. Moreover, try to find
lyrics that rhyme.
The noise that passes for new "music" today
generally lacks melody or lyrics that reach the heart. Maybe a
new trend will catch on that slows the frenetic tempo, softens the
volume, and makes way for Doris Days, Frank Sinatras or Bing
Crosbys.
One can hope.
PRICES 72 YEARS AGO.
Read it and weep.
From
May-June issue "Good Old Days."
We
and the Missus celebrate our 72nd anniversary this summer. One of our
hobbies is to watch the rise of general prices and compare them to the
prices of the day we galloped out of a northern Baptist Church and
drove to Maine for a two week honeymoon.
Post-war price inflation was already showing up at the grocery store.
For as long as we could remember a loaf of sliced bread cost nine or
ten cents, but by 1948 the price had shot up to fourteen cents.
We
have
experienced eleven economic recessions in our years as man and wife,
and hit by price inflation in all but two of our married yeara - 1949
and 1955. We did not expect to be alive when the general economy
went haywire and slipped into a bona fide depression, but we seem to be
headed quickly in that direction after the world-wide onset of the
coronavirus pandemic.
We are not particularly upset about a depression coming to clean out
the deadwood because we grew up as kids in the depressionary era of the
1930s. From a child's perspective it was not that awful. We were
thrilled to be finally able to raise $5.00 of our very own money to buy
a much used balloon tire bicycle and paint it blue. We were eight
years old. Prior to that we did a heck of a lot of walking!
Here's something to bear in mind: In 1948 we were carrying real
90 percent silver coins in our pockets and the paper currency was still
officially redeemable in lawful money. Although Americans had not been
able to own physical gold coins or bars since 1933 the dollar was still
tied to gold at the rate of $35.00 per troy ounce.
Two weeks before our 23rd anniversary the dollar was disconnected from
any backing by anything of instrinsic value thereby allowing it to be
created by government fiat. Supporters of the Constitutional mandate
concerning the minting of money were quick to point out "They can
create all the currency they want with the printing press or computer
key strokes. But they can't print
gold."
To "V" or not to "V". . .
We think the economy is more apt to go to
"L".
Some
Harvard economists are predicting the economy will not snap out of its
lethargy by election day. They think we're in for a "U shaped" recovery with no specific
guess on how long the bottom of the letter U will
persist. It could be bathtub
shaped.
Our guess, as we mentioned recently, is the recovery will be L shaped with the lower part
of the letter stretching for a consierable length of time.
The
Internet is jammed with amateur and professional economics bloggers who
believe they have the brainpower to predict how the U.S. and global
economy will unfold in the near future. All agree the virus scare
set the economy back to such an extent the federal government is having
to run multi-trillion dollar deficits in order to put some air under
the wings of a suddenlyweak economy. The leading liberal in
the U.S. House of Representatives believes another $3 trillion should
be pumped into the domestic economy to keep it going, although
Nancy Pelosi appears to have no understanding of what eventually
happens to economic systems that are based on the creation of dollars
from nothing (borrowed from the future on the promise of
repayment with dollars of less purchasing power).
White House staff have no choice but to hope
for a v
shaped recovery. That is, a sharp dip...which has already
happened....and a relatively quick return to re-employment and
recovery. It is difficult to run a presidential election campaign
when the economy is in tatters - as Herbert Hoover discovered in 1932.
The U shaped recovery
features a sharp dip, which we have, a flat spot for a while, and then
a recovery thanks to a money flood from the government.
Then there's the W.
This really is two Vs hooked together. Sharp drop, quick
recovery, another dip when reality sinks in, and the a return to
happy-ever-after.
We think the L
shaped prospect is more realistic. It feature the steep drop,
which we have just experienced, then a flat period that drags on until
the average citizen realizes no individual or nation can build solid
wealth through constantly borrowing more than one takes in. The
sages through the ages were right. You cannot constantly live
beyond your means without one day going broke.
Cycle
of Democracy
"A
democracy
cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist
until
the voters discover they can vote themselves largess from the public
treasury.
"From
that
moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising them
the most
benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy
always
collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.
"The
average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200
years. These nations have progressed through this sequence:
"From
bondage to spiritual faith;
from
spiritual faith to great courage;
from
courage to liberty;
from
liberty to abundance;
from
abundance to selfishness;
from
selfishness to apathy;
from
apathy to dependence;
from
dependency back again into bondage."
Dr.
Alexander
Tytler, a Scot professor, wrote a scholarly tome, from which this
concept
comes, called "The Athenian Republic" which was published shortly
before the thirteen American
colonies gained independence from Britain. "Google" him to learn
more.
In
publishing a handout on the "Cycle" in 1994 I noted that the
national
debt had reached a staggering $4.5 trillion dollars. By October 1,
2007, it had soared to $9.06 trillion!. Barely one
year later (Oct. 17,
'08) it was $10.3 trillion!! . By May,2020, tjhe debt exceeded $25
trillion with prospects of several trillion more! s . Our forebears thought of debt as
slavery. They would be shocked at what their descendants have
done. - - John
Wrisley.
Note:
We are aware of the selfless efforts of a Georgia attorney to
disprove the "Cycle." He says he painstakingly researched
everything Professor Tytler wrote and cannot find the above
sequence. He
does, however, observe that in Tytler's extensive writings on the
nature of
democracies through the ages the general trends are as the
Cycle sequence
states. ~JW
Compliments
of www.wrisley.com
"There are two structural reasons why consumer spending will not
rebound, no matter how 'open'
the economy may be.
Virtually everyone who glances at headlines knows the global economy is
lurching into either a deep recession or a full-blown depression,
depending on the definitions one is using. Everyone also knows the
stock market has roared back as if nothing has happened." ~Charles
Hugh Smith
Mr. Smith says
it's
important to note that risk is an internal assessment. Thus the economy
can be completely open again but people who feel cautious won't
resume their old spending habits, and there
is no way to force them to do so.
Think about it. Middle
and lower income folks have been slapped hard in the pocketbook forcing
them re-think how they spend their income (if they still have an income
stream) and many are logically concerned. The money
hustlers insist the injection of ready cash into the present wobbly
economy will help it snap back to its former health. But the
"health" was mostly an illusion based on debt. A bubble was
created by borrowing and that bubble has been pricked by the virus
pandemic. We are now in a recession that could easily deteriorate into
a prolonged depression.
A caution flag is fluttering for all to see.
If it's a deflationary depression prices (including wages) may be
forced down to levels not seen in some time.
We and the Missus
are retired to a high rise old folks home, the management of which has
done a good job of promoting behavior to discourage contagion of the
nnotorious coronavirus pandemic. So far as we know no cases have
been detected here, but a high percentage of the population is staying
cooped up in their apartments and wearing masks when they venture out
to circumnavigate the building in an attempt to exercise.
rECENTLY, a team of health workers came to the building
to administer COVID-19 checkups. We chose not to participate
mainly because 1/ We feel fine and believe we are presently virus free,
and 2/ we really hate the idea of strangers poking Q-tips up our
noses.
Yes, we think this virus is dangerous,
particularly to old people with underlying frailties, but we also think
most media outlets are overblowing the data. In the last 24 hours
we are told 3 deaths from the virus occurred in our state. We
have no idea how many people died of heart attacks, cancer, car
crashes, and other problems that sweep away a fraction of the
population each day.
The master of curmudgeonry, Fred
Reed, has finally dashed off a commentary on the virus. As usual,
some of his logic will infuriate the reader. A critic once
described him as "
...seditious, outrageous, inflammatory, evilly funny. Fred dislikes
everything he is supposed to like, and likes everything he is supposed
to dislike." GOV'T DOESN'T WANT YOU TO KNOW.
Former
S.C. governor Nikki Haley sounds like former Colorado governor
Richard Lamm.
Her
critics, and she has plenty, will say Haley is merely paving the way
for a run in 2024 for the U.S. presidency. Or, maybe she'll sign
on as Trump's running mate if Mike Pence bails out this summer.
Whatever her political aims, her view that the
monumental national debt is a Sword of Damocles swinging over the heads
of future generations is quite true. There is no chance the
voting majority will ever permit direct taxes rise to the level
required to halt budget deficits, let alone pay down any of the $25+
trillion public debt. Politicians will continue to inflate the
number of dollars in circulation with the result a sort of
inflation/deflation called "stagflation." This is a condition
that results in a lower living standard as dollars become less
efficient as measuring
tools for the exchange of goods and services.
Former Colorado governor Richard Lamm
slammed
the technique of borrowing from the future to pay current bills as a
form of "Christmas in reverse" by which we enjoy the presents and send
the bill to our posterity. Haley appears to understand...and
worry...about the habit of running multi-trillion dollar public
debt.
